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Weekly Currency Market Report 19.02.2018

GBP 

UK retail sales disappoint

Last week 

-    The pound dipped mid-week when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the UK needed to up its production. The IMF said: ‘Directors agreed that structural reforms should prioritise enhancing productivity, inclusiveness, and external competitiveness.’ 

-    On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate breached the 1.40 barrier yet again as US dollar weakness continued following inflation data being published Stateside. 

-    Sterling slipped on Friday when UK retail sales came in weaker than expected. The ecostats came in at 1.5% on the year in January, up from 1.3% the previous month, but well below forecasts for 2.4% growth. 

-    UK Prime Minister Theresa May met German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday which spurred hopes that the UK might get a good deal post-Brexit. Angela Merkel stated that she wanted the EU and UK to remain ‘as close as possible’ once the UK had exited the European Union. 

Week ahead

The pound is beginning the week above the 1.40 level against the US dollar (GBP/USD). Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney is due to speak this afternoon at an event in London and markets may scrutinise his words carefully. This week may see some significant movement on central bank comments as Wednesday will continue with four BoE officials (including Carney) speaking in London. The speeches will come after the UK releases a raft of labour market data, including average weekly earnings and unemployment rate numbers. Thursday could see further market shifts when the UK’s gross domestic product reading comes to light, which will mark the end of the UK’s data stream for the week. 

EUR 

Could there be a Czexit? 

Last week 

-    There were murmurs of the threat of disruption in the Czech Republic as political parties discussed the laws surrounding referendums – some believe if progress were to be made on the matter, there’s the opportunity for a ‘Czexit’. 

-    Eurozone industrial production shot to 5.2% on the year in December, far higher than the previous 3.7% reading and the 4.2% expected. 

-    Data also showed Eurozone gross domestic product growth remained at 2.7% on the year in the fourth quarter.

Week ahead

Tuesday could be an eventful day for the euro with the release of the highly influential German ZEW economic surveys, followed by the Eurozone consumer confidence number. Wednesday will continue with both German and Eurozone manufacturing, services, and composite purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI’s) out, ahead of Thursday’s publication of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) account of the January policy meeting. 

USD 

US consumer confidence jumps 

Last week  

-    The US consumer price index came in higher than forecast at 2.1% in January (rather than 1.9% on the year, causing the dollar to drop on Wednesday.  GBP/USD climbed by around 0.60% on the news as investors began to grow concerned high price pressures would result in an aggressive rate hike cycle from the Federal Reserve. 

-    The University of Michigan sentiment index came in at 99.9 in February – the second-highest level in 14 years. The data shows the recent swings in the stock market have been unable to rattle consumers. 

This week 

This week may begin quite quietly for the US dollar with little economic data scheduled for release and US markets closed Monday 19th February. However, later in the week, a few pieces will be published, alongside the release of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Investors will be looking closely to see if there are any hints on the path of monetary policy. Wednesday will also see the release of US manufacturing, services and home sales data, followed by the weekly jobless claims numbers on Thursday, alongside the January leading index, and crude oil inventories. The week will close with a few Federal Reserve officials speaking 

Other

AUD - RBA meeting minutes ahead 

-    Last week, the Australian unemployment rate came in at 5.5% in January, down from 5.6%. Meanwhile, employment change numbers showed an increase of 16.0K, higher than the 15.0K forecast. 

-    The Aussie might feel the impact of the February Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes due out on Tuesday. Additionally, the rest of the week will see Westpac’s leading index and Australian wage price index data reach the market.

CAD – Canadian inflation in focus 

-    Last week the Canadian dollar was able to maintain some gains against the US dollar, ending Thursday close to a 10-day high. However, despite making gains against the buck, the loonie sank to its lowest intraday trade level against the euro (CAD/EUR) since February 2016. 

-    Friday saw the CAD/USD exchange rate weaken as the greenback gained some ground and Canadian manufacturing data disappointed. Manufacturing sales slipped by -0.3% in December, rather than registering +0.3% growth as expected, after November’s 3.8%. 

-    Thursday will see the release of the Canadian retail sales number, while Friday will bring with it the latest Canadian inflation reading. 

NZD – Kiwi reaches four-month high 

-    Last week, New Zealand’s business manufacturing index rose to 55.6 in January, a notable upswing from December’s 51.1. 

-    The Kiwi managed to reach a four-month high towards the end of last week but has started this week softer. 

-    The week ahead has a few economic events which could create NZD movements such as the latest dairy auction and credit card and retail sales spending on Thursday.

This week's economic events:

GBP – BoE's Carney speaks – Monday

EUR – German ZEW surveys – Tuesday

GBP – UK labour market data – Wednesday

GBP – BoE officials speak – Wednesday

USD – FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday

GBP – UK GDP – Thursday.

FC Exchange Morning Report

Current rates:

Monday 19th February 2018 at 11:00

£1.00 GBP = 1.1290 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.4028 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7694 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.8980 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7599 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 16.3183 ZAR

Just imagine if YOU could forecast the exchange rate?

No one can do that of course but being well informed is a good start and knowing the events coming up that may influence the exchange rate may help you with your planning.

The latest quarterly currency market forecasts from the international money transfer experts, FC Exchange, are now available. The reports are essential reading for anyone buying or selling a property, in fact anyone making international money transfers.

The currency markets will always fluctuate, but last year saw unprecedented levels of volatility. The currency forecasts review the factors that have contributed to the uncertainty we have seen and look ahead to the issues that could affect currency markets in the next quarter and throughout 2017.

Grab your Free Report here... 

FC Exchange Market Report

Do you want more information ?

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany. If you are buying or selling a house in France we will make sure your monies are in the right place at the right time, we work hand in hand with you and Cle France.

For more information on the currency service I can provide please feel free to contact myself...

Ben Amrany from FC Exchange follow this link or phone and ask for myself and quote "Cle France" on 020 7989 0000.

You may contact me directly using this form (click here) with your requirement and I will explain the options that are available to you in getting the best exchange rate.

FC Exchange

For everything you need to know about French property visit www.clefrance.co.uk

Add Comment | Views: 30

Brexit News and US Inflation

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD Climbs on Brexit News and US Inflation 

The pound and euro both began Thursday’s European session making gains against the US dollar (GBP/USD, EUR/USD) after US consumer prices failed to edge lower. US inflation came in at 2.1% instead of the 1.9% forecast, creating concerns in the market that the US Federal Reserve might begin aggressively hiking interest rates. The pound was able to breach the 1.40 barrier yet again, while the euro breached the 1.25 level. The pound was also in a position to climb against the euro, rising by around 0.30%.

Meanwhile, in the UK retail sector, Laura Ashley issued a profit warning blaming the pound’s Brexit-inspired weakness as the main cause. The retailer announced that its pre-tax profits had dropped by 45% in the six months through December 2017, citing the fallen pound as ‘the most significant single factor’. 

The pound was offered some support when the EU removed something named as a ‘punishment clause’ from a draft of the Brexit transition arrangement. Yesterday, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson stated that it would be ‘intolerable and undemocratic’ if the UK had to be subjected to laws from the EU following Brexit in 2019. Boris believes that the UK needs to be able to make its own trading regulations after the divorce with other nations that are separate from the EU. 

The pound is currently trending in the region of 1.1258 against the euro (GBP/EUR), and 1.4104 against the US dollar (GBP/USD).

FC Exchange Morning Report

Current rates:

Friday 16th February 2018 at 09:30

£1.00 GBP = 1.1259 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.4105 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7680 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.8991 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7571 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 16.3555 ZAR

Just imagine if YOU could forecast the exchange rate?

No one can do that of course but being well informed is a good start and knowing the events coming up that may influence the exchange rate may help you with your planning.

The latest quarterly currency market forecasts from the international money transfer experts, FC Exchange, are now available. The reports are essential reading for anyone buying or selling a property, in fact anyone making international money transfers.

The currency markets will always fluctuate, but last year saw unprecedented levels of volatility. The currency forecasts review the factors that have contributed to the uncertainty we have seen and look ahead to the issues that could affect currency markets in the next quarter and throughout 2017.

Grab your Free Report here... 

FC Exchange Market Report

Do you want more information ?

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany. If you are buying or selling a house in France we will make sure your monies are in the right place at the right time, we work hand in hand with you and Cle France.

For more information on the currency service I can provide please feel free to contact myself...

Ben Amrany from FC Exchange follow this link or phone and ask for myself and quote "Cle France" on 020 7989 0000.

You may contact me directly using this form (click here) with your requirement and I will explain the options that are available to you in getting the best exchange rate.

FC Exchange

For everything you need to know about French property visit www.clefrance.co.uk

Add Comment | Views: 132

Who Was Saint Valentine?

Qui était saint Valentin? (Who was Saint Valentine?)

Today is a day that is both loved (and possibly loathed) around the world. However, in France, a Saint-Valentin is particularly a holiday for lovers and only means one thing, Love.

Cle France Blogs

Valentines Day has its origins in the life of the real Saint Valentine, who lived in the third-century. According to some Catholic tradition, Saint Valentine was martyred on a road to Rome in 269 AD. However, very little is known about him and stories about his life–and death–diverge. According to the French Catholic website Nominis...  

“Il était, dit-on, évêque de Terni en Italie et jouissait du renom de thaumaturge. Un miracle le fit connaître comme chrétien et le préfet de Rome fit mettre à mort celui qui avait mis ses pouvoirs de prêtre et ses talents de médecin au service des chrétiens prisonniers pour leur foi.”

(He was, it is said, the bishop of Terni in Italy who was renowned as a miracle worker. One miracle in particular made him known as a Christian and the Roman government put him to death because he had used his powers as a priest and his medical knowledge to help Christian prisoners for their faith.)

According to another story, the Roman emperor Claudius admired Saint Valentine for his talents. Claudius told his fellow Romans, “Romains… écoutez comme cet homme parle avec sagesse et droiture.” (Romans, listen to how this man speaks with wisdom and righteousness.) However, despite his earlier admiration, Claudius felt threatened by Saint Valentine after he healed one of Claudius’ soldier’s daughters, who was blind, and decapitated him in 280 AD.

Whatever the circumstances of his life and death, why is Saint Valentine commemorated on February 14 around the world? In 495, Pope Gelasius decreed that February 14 would be consecrated to Saint Valentine. We don’t know exactly why, however. According to some traditions, it’s because mid-February was believed to be the time of year, in the Middle Ages, when birds paired off.

It, thus, became associated with romantic love. How did Saint Valentine become associated with romantic love? That’s more difficult to trace. However, English author Chaucer is typically credited with popularising the holiday in the fourteenth century–over one thousand years after the real Saint Valentine lived.

Joyeuse Saint-Valentin!

Cle France LOGO

Blog submitted by: Alex at The French Property Network - Cle France.

This blog was originally posted on The French Language Blog pages.

Add Comment | Views: 616

Celebrating St Valentines Day the French way

Valentine’s Day in France.

The origins of Saint Valentine’s Day are unclear. Ancient Rome celebrated the 14th February as a day of worship to the god Juno, and there are three different Saint Valentines in the Catholic Church. Tradition states that people began to notice that birds began their mating rituals half way through the second month of the year and so the 14th was designated as a day for exchanging love letters and tokens of esteem.

As you would expect from a country whose capital city is so strongly associated with romance, Valentine’s day has throughout history played a part in the love lives of the French. A former Valentine’s Day custom, which was officially banned, was that of ‘la loterie d’amour’, translated as ‘lottery of love’. Single people, both young and old, would go into their houses, (the houses all facing in on each other during this period), and call out until they were paired off with each other. However, if the gentleman was displeased with his ‘prize’ he would simply abandon her, hoping for better luck next time! Those women abandoned by their suitors would build a large bonfire and burn images of their men, cursing and abusing them as the flames burnt. However, due to fears of public disorder the government issued a decree banning the practice.

The origins of the first Valentine cards to be sent also have a French connection: the first known ‘carte d'amitié’, was believed to have been sent in 1415 by the Duke of Orleans who was imprisoned in the Tower of London following the Battle of Agincourt, to his wife.

The village of Saint Valentin, situated in the central department of Indre was traditionally a place of pilgrimage. Nowadays the village holds a number of fêtes to celebrate its association with this patron saint, where people can renew their marriage vows.

Today St Valentine's Day is celebrated in France in much the same way as in the U.K. where it is an opportunity to exchange cards, flowers, chocolates and other gifts. It has a similar commercial feel also as retailers will stock up on these traditional gifts and cards, and hearts and roses will be the order of the day in shop windows and displays.

Cle France Blogs

Blog submitted by: Alex at Cle France.

Add Comment | Views: 3517

Raising Speculation of Higher Interest Rates

UK Inflation Sticks at 3.0% in January Raising Speculation of Higher Interest Rates 

On Tuesday, economic data showed that the UK’s inflation level remained at 3.0% in January, spurring hopes the Bank of England (BoE) would need to look at adjusting its monetary policy stance. Some economists are suggesting the central bank could look to hike interest rates as soon as May.

This comes after the BoE recently stated that interest rate rises might happen sooner than markets expect. The data shows the cost of living squeeze is still stretching households with wages lagging behind consumer price growth. 

The Office for National Statistics commented on the data, saying:

"The largest downward contribution to change in the rate came from prices for motor fuels, which rose by less than they did a year ago. The main upward effect came from prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services, in particular admissions to attractions such as zoos and gardens, for which prices fell by less than they did a year ago." 

Economists had predicted UK consumer prices would decline from 3.0% to 2.9% in January after a fall from 3.1% to 3.0% in December. November’s 3.1% had been a five-year high. The pound is currently trending higher against the US dollar (GBP/USD) and euro (GBP/EUR) on the news.

FC Exchange Morning Report

Current rates:

Tuesday 13th February 2018 at 11:45

£1.00 GBP = 1.1226 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.3875 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7661 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.9059 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7481 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 16.5647 ZAR

Just imagine if YOU could forecast the exchange rate?

No one can do that of course but being well informed is a good start and knowing the events coming up that may influence the exchange rate may help you with your planning.

The latest quarterly currency market forecasts from the international money transfer experts, FC Exchange, are now available. The reports are essential reading for anyone buying or selling a property, in fact anyone making international money transfers.

The currency markets will always fluctuate, but last year saw unprecedented levels of volatility. The currency forecasts review the factors that have contributed to the uncertainty we have seen and look ahead to the issues that could affect currency markets in the next quarter and throughout 2017.

Grab your Free Report here... 

FC Exchange Market Report

Do you want more information ?

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany. If you are buying or selling a house in France we will make sure your monies are in the right place at the right time, we work hand in hand with you and Cle France.

For more information on the currency service I can provide please feel free to contact myself...

Ben Amrany from FC Exchange follow this link or phone and ask for myself and quote "Cle France" on 020 7989 0000.

You may contact me directly using this form (click here) with your requirement and I will explain the options that are available to you in getting the best exchange rate.

FC Exchange

For everything you need to know about French property visit www.clefrance.co.uk

Add Comment | Views: 65